| Telecommunications
Review, September 2004 New birds migrating to Kiwi airspace Satellite business case may yet fly |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
By Keith Newman In the past satellites delivered competitive high capacity bandwidth for international voice and data but the plummeting cost of fibre optic cable has put the high flying birds out of favour for long haul services. That’s thrown traditional satellite operators and service providers a curve ball and a challenge to rethink their business case, customer base and the type of services they can offer. To date they’ve proven the most plausible means of delivering digital TV to New Zealand and are still in demand as an infill technology for broadband data where DSL and wireless can’t reach. It’s difficult to know whether the business case for satellite coverage for New Zealand is coming or going. Telecom is shutting down the majority of its satellite uplinks, TelstraClear has sold off its transponder space, Ihug is slowly backing out of the business and TVNZ Satellite Services will shut down before the end of the year. Meanwhile major players IntelSat, New Sky, PanAmSat and Iridium have changed ownership in recent years and are redefining their business case. While buyers of long haul bandwidth from the sky are shifting their focus to more affordable terrestrial and submarine cable the next generation of satellites are promising a new era of competitive services for connecting global networks and direct to the home broadband and digital TV. Flock of new birds due As a member of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) New Zealand has the ability to file applications for new satellites and is guaranteed certain frequency allotments. The Ministry of Economic Development (MED) signaled its interest in the geostationary space at 158 degrees east, 35,000kms above the equator, but has yet to confirm it’ll go into battle for that. A discussion paper on use of the space, set aside for this country by the ITU in 2000, resulted in 10 submissions confirming there’s a competitive interest in using the orbit. Brian Miller manager spectrum policy and planning with MED says a recommendation will be made before Christmas. However one of the parties who’s made a submission to use the orbit believes the MED is dragging its feet having reneged on a promise to progress things more quickly. NZLSat director Katherine Moody, a former MED spectrum group manager, says her group is prepared to invest $100 million in launching a satellite but is already loosing a competitive edge because it’s been waiting nearly a year for the MED to decide on securing the rights. If the MED does secure the orbital allocation the successful applicant will have use fixed by regulation and never have to reapply. It would sit between the existing Optus satellite at 160 degrees which is due for replacement in 2006 and the second SingTel Optus D2 satellite at 156 degrees due for launch in 2007. Having three satellites in such proximity might present technical challenges but it would also mean consumers could potentially access all three for broadband internet and digital TV on the same dish. Keeping others out of our nest She believes a business case could be approved within six months and a satellite launched within 36 months, delivering digital TV via direct to home antenna and broadband internet, once the MED gets off its hands. Part of NZLSat’s submission is to redress the fact that New Zealand only applied for ‘every other channel’ available when considering frequencies for the region. That capacity could be doubled from 12 frequencies to 24 if the MED goes for the full quota, making the the orbit even more viable. "It was an oversight. I was the regulator at the time of the World Radio Conference in 2000 and I admit we made a mistake in not taking up the whole 24 frequencies," says Moody. She says the new IPStar-1 launch planned by Shin Satellite for early 2005 is a major competitor but believes NZLSat could provide stronger signal and a more affordable ‘in-home installation’. IPStar-1 eyes more than rural Shin is to spend $15 million building an earth station at Albany near Auckland to manage the three spot beams over New Zealand. The satellite which has 18 gateways across Asia will cover one third of the earth. As an interim measure Shin is using transponder space on the New Sky 5 satellite for local coverage but has its hopes pinned on a $US350-million next generation satellite - the largest ever built, weighing in at 6,700kg. After several false starts the launch is now expected in February 2005. IPStar-1 will have an aggregate capacity of 40 gigabits per second (Gbit/sec), offering high-speed internet access at speeds up to 8Mbit/.sec downstream and 4Mbit/sec upstream Shin Satellite, a division of telecommunications conglomerate Shin Corp, was founded by Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. His brother in law Bhanapot Damapong is chairman of the board and the major shareholder. Local agency IPStar New Zealand, has through its relationship with internet service provider ICONZ been selected as the Project Probe partner to deliver broadband to 63 rural schools. ICONZ is buying wholesale bandwidth from IPStar and satellite antennae and customer premises equipment from Shin in Thailand. IPStar New Zealand director, John Humphry believes the opportunity is far larger than the 5 per cent of outlying users quoted by some players – he believes it could be greater than 15 per cent. Total market growing While the price will initially be out of reach for some he believes the total market is growing as more people want to go beyond dial up connections. "I see it as a series of concentric circles – the innermost is DSL with a 4-5km radius from an exchange, outside of that wireless may work if there’s a concentration of population but as soon as the population base starts to thin or there’s geographic or distance change that’s where satellite kicks in." Currently he’s using transponder space on New Skies 5 but when IPStar-1 goes lives it’ll offer much greater capacity to 1.2 metre and 80cm antennae depending on strength of coverage. Mr Humphrey says the dynamic linking between the satellite and the ground station means the management system can detect when there is a weather front moving up the country or focus in on one particular uses connection if need be. The system automatically predicts the fall off of availability and compensates by boosting the power to those areas. He says the equipment needs to be professionally installed and admits the low aspect to the horizon may mean it doesn’t work in all cases, particularly where there is dense bush or wind breaks or neighbouring houses blocking access. "Where necessary we will look to do remote installs in a weatherproof box so people can place the antennae on a cowshed for example as long as there is power and run an Ethernet cable back to the house. "There will be the odd farm house on the hill facing east with a steep hill to the west which will be a major challenge." Digital TV is not on the menu yet although in a year’s time specialised services may meet niche demands for content delivery such as business TV and training videos. Meantime the majority of users simply want plain old vanilla internet access although its expected businesses with remote offices may use the system to run a secure business VPN for access to their intranet, or video conference. While voice has been demonstrated as equal to cellular reception voice on its own will not be promoted immediately. However Mr Humphrey believes a lot of people will hang Wi-fi equipment off their satellite connection to expand their connection throughout the house, to outer buildings and even neighbouring properties. ICONZ sees itself in both the satellite and Wifi business and in building a network of resellers around the country will invite smaller outlets such as computer ships. "We’ll be more than happy to supply them with dishes to sell to farmers, businesses, forestry companies or anyone else," says Matthew Sollis, ICONZ IPStar project manager.
Schools then on to community To guard against power spikes UPS will be supplied with the first satellite connection and possibly the second if it’s a relay into a cove or a valley. The other wholesaler BayCity is in partnership with Ericsson to supply equipment on an ‘as needs’ basis. The ISP has been in business since 1997 and expanded its business to include broadband and installation of its FarmSide e-farming solutions. It will target farms, residences and businesses throughout rural New Zealand and the outlying islands with the broadband service. Ericsson general manager of marketing Steve Inglis believes once the new satellite is launched the appeal may be much wider than just mopping up the last rural bits. "While the focus will initially be on remote areas it would be ideal for regions, small towns or centres, depending on pricing of bandwidth and the cost of CPE." Mr Inglis says there have been enquiries from emergency services wanting a failsafe service in case of earthquake or storm. Ericsson will act as integrator and equipment provider. It has not previously used these skills in New Zealand but has teams in remote Australia connecting base station backhaul via satellite for cellular networks. "This is the first satellite with IP broadband services in mind, the others have tended to be broadcast satellites with IP services overlaid. The smarts in this one will be on the ground rather than in the air enabling a high level of management including the ability to upload new applications or services." Mr Inglis says Ericsson has trialed voice between Auckland and three other locations using the first generation IPStar and performance was good. Satellite operators are challenging the view that only 5 per cent of the population is out of range of DSL or wireless services suggesting up to 15 per cent of the population may not have adequate access to broadband coverage. It’s also alleged wireless providers including Whoosh and BCL haven’t yet delivered on promises to provide competitive services in many areas where satellite could do a better job. Over the next 18 months satellite could move to the front line as in-fill technology to get to areas where current broadband coverage is unreliable or non-existence and even help some ISPs get around the monopoly stranglehold on last mile connections. Sky phones costly but essential The satellite business has been a bit of a plodder in recent years but with the recent price break bringing Iridium handsets down to $3000 the market has begun to grow again, according to Rocom’s satellite expert David Thorpe. Previously the Inmarsat solution was the main option for remote workers with a terminal the size of a laptop costing around $6000. The at-sea version requires a three stage antenna to keep locked on to the orbital position. Neither offering is particularly flash in the data transfer department, typically delivering 2.4kbit/sec useful only for voice and emails or if you are very patient images and small attachments. Inmarsat bandwidth can ramp up to meet specific needs such as the Pitcairn Island incest court case which will leverage two 64kbit/sec channels for videoconferencing and Iridium is seen as ideal for remote users who have no other means of communication. So how many users are there in New Zealand? "Hundreds" says Mr Thorpe enthusiastically as if it were a much larger number. Contractors, consultants, people on fishing boats and those working in remote areas including Defence, Conservation and other government departments. Mr Thorpe says there are users who are an hour or so away from any kind of cellphone coverage and the satellite phone is critical for decision making and for safety - calling for help in an emergency or getting someone to fly in a chopper with equipment. You can make a call on an Iridium for $US1.50 per minute but try calling an Iridium phone from a landline or even a Telecom cellphone and you’re in for a shock. "If you dial from your desk it’s $7.50 a minute plus GST to ring an Iridium phone but if you use a cellphone its $15.95 – it’s ridiculous." Rocom’s address the problems by offering free text messaging to Iridium phones from its web site. "Chances are the phones off. The best thing is send a text message so when they turn the phone on it will be there." Meanwhile things are expected to look up for global satellite provider Inmarsat. Currently it has geostationary satellite coverage of the globe used by governments, corporations and news agencies for international links and global positioning systems for search and rescue and location finding. From early in 2005 the first of three new generation Inmarsat 4 satellites will be launched capable of delivering circuit-switched and packet data services from 64kbit/sec up to 432kbit/sec including voice through smaller lightweight user terminals. The move, which has involved $US1.6 billion investment is seen as essential to Inmarsat’s future as it attempts to meet the growing high speed data needs of its multinational corporate and government clients. The new broadband global area network (BGAN) will be compatible with existing 3G networks and work in tandem with existing Inmarsat satellites. Inmarsat and Iridium representation in New Zealand includes Wright Technologies and Rocom. Satellites to
target wireless territory The next generation of satellite providers are unlikely to be locked into providing broadband internet to the backblocks, they’re likely to give some wireless providers a run for their money. IPStar New Zealand director, John Humphry believes the 5-10 per cent estimate of users who can’t get access to DSL or wireless is probably more like 15 per cent. While he agrees the price will be out of reach for some people he believes the total market is growing as more people want to go beyond dial up connections. "I see it as a series of concentric circles – the innermost one is DSL with a 4-5km radius from an exchange, outside of that wireless may work if there’s a concentration of population but as soon as the population base starts to thin or there’s geographic or distance change that’s where satellite kicks in." "I don’t think we’re in the DSL space but in 2005 when the cost of kit comes down and bandwidth reduces in cost IPStar could begin seriously addressing competition in the wireless market." A corporate network with 50 sites - 30 DSL, 10 wireless and 10 satellite - may find that a difficult network to manage so we may offer them a bulk deal to go with satellite." Currently the company is using transponder space on New Skies 5 but when IPStar-1 goes live in February next year it’ll offer 30 times the capacity which he says will bring the cost of bandwidth down dramatically. Humphrey believes a lot of people will hang Wifi equipment off their satellite connection to expand connection throughout the house and even neighbouring properties. "A small beach community or a bunch of retirees in small communities may share the cost of putting in an 802.11 network." That’s exactly the idea one of its wholesalers ICONZ has as an extra money spinner. "We definitely see ourselves competing with wireless but not necessarily at the same price point," says Matthew Sollis, ICONZ IPStar project manager.
The meshing equipment it uses can expand coverage up to 20kms. "Each house could act as the next relay point for the next person who wants it creating a local loop in the community. That’s quite good for New Zealand topography. You of course keep an eye on the usage as you get more customers on it."
Telecommunications Review, Contact: Matt Freeman, Freeman Media 027-471-11113 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||